Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Reasons why, I think most of the regulars at my stakes are break-even or marginal winners

My thoughts are mostly aimed towards 25NL full rings players, but some are also aimed to 50-100NL regs. I think there is a huge gap between the average 25NL reg and the average 100NL reg (a good % of 100NL regs used to play higher stakes of couple of years ago, and now they moved down because games at higher limits are just almost dead). At 10NL and lower stakes I think regs are even worse and have may more leaks than the 25NL regs.

Before I write down my thoughts I just want to give you guys a link to a post made my favorite player about the current games: . I have a huge amount of respect for vini's playing style and poker skills(his videos are the best I have ever seen).

Reasons why most regs at my stakes are break-even or marginal winners:
  • some regs are just too lazy to table select. I often sit at tables where I see 8 regs playing each other and just basicly pushing chips around the table (like the weakest reg is a 17/10/2 player) - sometimes I think I might be the fish at table and the reason everyone is playing at it --lol. There is a old poker proverb: "if you can't see the fish at your table, it means that you are the fish!" That is just not going to give anyone a huge winrate over a long period of time. While I think most of us regs will have an edge over a 19/2/2 player, we are just not going to make enough money to compensate for the high rake sistem that we have at our stakes. What you should do: Make a plan... Tell yourself that you will not play at a table that does not have at least a 25% VPIP fish (or 30%VPIP if you want to have a bigger edge).
  • there are too many pro shortstackers killing the games... These days almost all the tables have more than 5 ss's witch really sucks for a good players winrate. Some regs think that they have an edge over ss's and some 100bb regs even love shortstackers and argue with me when I talk about how the ss's should be eliminated from the games-lol. Some regs think they have a big winrate at tables with ss's, but it is just not the case. A table with 7 ss's is simillar to a CAP table(only it is 40bb CAP... it does not matter that 2 regs have 100bb..... the effective atsck is the one that counts), witch is almost imposible to beat at the micro's because of the rake structure(but the ss's will also have an edge over a 100bb player, because they feel more confortable playing a 40bb strategy). Solution: avoid the ss's as mutch as possible. Search for tables with few ss's and avoid having them to your left.
  • avoid a very good reg or a 30-40VPIP to your direct left. I find it hard to win at a table like that. It might be just a personal preference...
  • some regs are just very bad at hand reading and some regs don't think about what range the villain has at all. They end up paying off villains too light when they are just never good(sometimes on multiple streets), or they end up bluffing on multiple streets when they have no fold equity.
  • some regs don't work at all on improving their game or plugging leaks. They just sit down and play. The micro stakes 2+2 forum is a bad place imo to learn(a lot of bad advice is given there). A good source to learn is to watch poker videos, have sweats with other winning regs or join a skype group.
  • some regs play certain hands preflop, from some positions, that just will not not show a profit on the longterm. They just don't realise that they are slowly bleeding money away(even if short term results show that they are winning).
  • bluffing fish... especially bluffing fish on multiple streets with air(sometimes even all in for 100+bb). This is just a bad ideea, but I see this happen all the time. This is just something that kills winrates.
  • value betting too thin on multiple streets vs fish that play fit or fold postflop and calling the raise from the fish when it happens. Value betting thin vs fish is good, but you need to try to give them a range and try to get a read on how the fish is playing postflop. Some fish have a loose image preflop but play a nitty stile postflop. I see a lot of regs that just ignore this and value bet too thin vs these fish and sometimes call their raises (surprise.... the fish has the This is the reason why some 30-40VPIP fish will be marginal winners in the games over a 20-30k hand sample, especially if they run good (some regs play bad vs them and don't even realise that they are making a mistake)
These are my thoughts and some of the reasons I beat the micro's with a higher winrate than some other regs. Good luck at the tables guys...


  1. Great post in general and summs up my thought too!

    I will add (imo) one of the biggest aspects why lots of regs (incl. me :-( ) have smaller WR

    Mindsetproblems and mental leaks kill winrates too !! I know this for sure...
    Only wanted to mention cause this is a big topic on its own!
    In my case i have to focus on this leaks to get a better winner next year!


  2. Yeah.... I think that sometimes I am a mental fish too... My biggest problem/leak is that I can't put in volume when I run really really bad... Zero emotion is the best way to go....

  3. lol here its the other way round, when i run really bad (like yesterday) i try to chase and play 350 and 500 mins sessions at one day ^^

    If im up alot in a short time i mostly quit.... damn leaks

  4. Don't stop when you are winning.... You are leaving money on the I also love playing very long sessions..... but when I run decent.

  5. really enjoying ur blog posts, good luck on 2013!

  6. Nice post . Where can we watch his videos vinis?

  7. Thank you guys. You can watch vinivici on leggo poker. They have 7day subsription for free I think. He is a genius.

  8. superb post.

    with regard to the shortstackers, earlier this year i put a lot of time into playing and learning CAP, i bought 2 x $450 packages from the 2 best CAP/short staking training websites which included a ton of vids and charts.

    Although for 20bb, and although in the end i didnt decide to stick to CAP, when i returned to full ring my game seemed a lot better, and that included vs short stackers who i now embrace lol

    Obviously i shouldnt be sharing those prob copyrighted packages officially. if you were interested drop me an email and we can discuss it further. Some of the charts/vids might be of use to us full ring players, certainly seemed to help my game anyway.

  9. Hey Danuuutz i just wanna congrat you for such amaizing blog you have... I was surfing the web when i found it and stopped to read a little... I loved this post and is really nice from you sharing all the knowledge you have to help the semi-regs like me ... BTW Congratz for completing your nl10 challenge :) Keep it like that and wish u all the best and luck at the tables

    el cadejo89 ;)


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...