In the past days I have been searching
for a solution to a problem I have... And while doing this, I saw some funny stuff on the internet (funny for regulars that have experience playing), but stuff that can be really damaging to the online poker games if recreational players, or politicians that have no experience with online poker read it and if they believe this stuff is actually true. I will post below a couple of links with this stuff(I don't think this stuff deserves more than 1 line on my blog):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKbRn_L1Udo
https://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/british-government-carry-out-a-full-audit-of-online-poker-sites
http://fuckpokerstars.com/emails.php
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfQBhbRiqnE
The players that write this stuff are "small stakes live pro's" that play in really soft live games and without studying poker theory at all they are able to break even or even be marginal winners in those game formats... Below I will write what I think are the reasons why they are frustrated with having worse results in online games, compared to what they are used to in the live games(this apllies to both cash and tournaments but I will just focus on cash for simplicity):
- A "200NL live pro" that has not studied the poker game and worked a lot, but who is used to playing very soft live games, will never be able to sit down at a 200NL online table and expect to have simillar results as he does in live games. These days online games are extremely tough and a avarage 100-200NL table has 7 regulars(that are not dumping money on the table) and 1-2 fish, or even 8 regulars and 1 weaker regular... So a live player has almost no chance of breaking even in this type of game, even if he used to having a small edge in live games. People say that 200NL live= 25NL or even 10NL online... If you choose to play 10-25NL online you should also not expect to make a lot of money(I play 150.000hands/month to get some decent profit for example)
- "small stakes live pro's" have huge leaks, that surface when playing online games and facing a mutch stronger oposition. In live games those leaks are less signficant just because of how soft the games are and the fact that noone is capable of exploiting those leaks....
- "live pro's" don't have reads or decent sample sizes on online regulars which makes it even harder to table select or to survive in the tough games.
- "live pro's" usually will play a very small volume online, just because they are not used to play many tables. By playing a small volume they will experience a lot of variance and this will impact their emotions. And even if these players might be marginal winners in online poker formats, they will still not win a considerable amount of money, just because if u want to win online you have to play a lot of hands...
- In tournaments variance is a lot higher than in cash games. You should have at least 300buy-ins bankroll and you should expect 100-200 buy-in downswings on a regular basis even if you are a very good player(this is the reason why I play cash games).
- the "live pro's" that complain about "pokerstars is rigged" don't know even the most basic probability math behind poker.
Below I will post a
"Analysis of 100,000+ random hands dealt at PokerStars" made by a neutral party. I have also done this analysis on my own database using holdem manager(but I did mine on a more basic level):
For people who complain that "my four flushes don't make it" or that "Aces flop more often than they should when I have AK" can now see that the distribution is normal, and that players make their hands at normal rates (expected number of pairs, 2 pairs, flushes, straights, etc).
Starting cards:
Total hands you were dealt cards: 125852
All suited starters dealt: 29595 (23.52%)
All suited starters expected: 29612 (23.5%)
All connected starters dealt: 19493 (15.49%)
All connected starters expected: 19741 (15.7%)
Suited connector starters dealt: 4837 (3.84%)
Suited connector starters expected: 4935 (3.92%)
Paired starters dealt: 7364 (5.851%)
Paired starters expected: 7403 (5.88%)
AKo dealt: 1202 (0.955%)
AKo expected: 1139 (0.905%)
AKs dealt: 373 (0.296%)
AKs expected: 380 (0.302%)
Any AK dealt: 1575 (1.251%)
Any AK expected: 1519 (1.21%)
A's dealt: 603 (0.479%)
K's dealt: 543 (0.431%)
Q's dealt: 558 (0.443%)
J's dealt: 551 (0.438%)
T's dealt: 546 (0.434%)
9's dealt: 585 (0.465%)
8's dealt: 568 (0.451%)
7's dealt: 597 (0.474%)
6's dealt: 542 (0.431%)
5's dealt: 532 (0.423%)
4's dealt: 603 (0.479%)
3's dealt: 582 (0.462%)
2's dealt: 554 (0.440%)
Each pair expected: 569 (0.452%)
(Note that only data for hands where a flop was dealt and you
were dealt cards preflop are used. Hands where no flop was dealt
are skipped.)
Total hands you were dealt cards: 125852
Times a flop dealt when you were dealt cards: 80610 (64.05%)
When user dealt AK, flops at least one A or K: 346 (33.11%)
expected: 339 (32.4%)
USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 19446 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
3 flush: 8164 (41.98%) expected: 8087 (41.6%)
4 flush: 2226 (11.45%) expected: 2128 (10.9%)
5 flush: 147 (0.76%) expected: 164 (0.842%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 612 (3.15%) expected: 620 (3.18%)
2 flush: 10728 (55.17%) expected: 10718 (55.1%)
3 flush: 981 (5.04%) expected: 1015 (05.22%)
any pair: 3303 (16.99%) expected: 3292 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card: 10257 (52.7%) expected: 10233 (52.6%)
Pair: 7868 (40.5%) expected: 7858 (40.4%)
Two pair: 757 (3.89%) expected: 786 (4.04%)
3 of a kind: 302 (1.55%) expected: 306 (1.57%)
Straight: 97 (0.50%) expected: 80 (0.412%)
Flush: 147 (0.76%) expected: 162 (0.835%)
Full house: 15 (0.077%) expected: 18 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 3 (0.015%) expected: 2 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 1 (0.00589%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000654%)
USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 5218 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Underpair (to flop): 1224 (23.46%) expected: 1225 (23.5%)
Overpair (to flop): 1215 (23.28%) expected: 1225 (23.5%)
Set: 647 (12.40%) expected: 601 (11.51%)
Quads: 5 (0.096%) expected: 13 (0.245%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 168 (3.22%) expected: 166 (3.18%)
2 flush: 2860 (54.81%) expected: 2872 (55.0%)
3 flush: 305 (5.85%) expected: 269 (5.16%)
any pair: 896 (17.17%) expected: 895 (17.1%)
Hand user flops:
High card: 0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 3707 (71.0%) expected: 3748 (71.8%)
Two pair: 841 (16.12%) expected: 843 (16.2%)
3 of a kind: 597 (11.44%) expected: 562 (10.8%)
Straight: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0
(0.00%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house: 68 (1.303%) expected: 51 (0.980%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.096%) expected: 13 (0.245%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 5026 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Open ended: 414 (8.24%) expected: 430 (8.55%)
Double belly: 24 (0.48%) expected: 27 (0.531%)
Straight: 70 (1.39%) expected: 63 (1.26%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 180 (3.58%) expected: 158 (3.15%)
2 flush: 2804 (55.79%) expected: 2766 (55.0%)
3 flush: 259 (5.15%) expected: 260 (5.16%)
any pair: 852 (16.95%) expected: 851 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card: 2641 (52.5%) expected: 2646 (52.6%)
Pair: 2025 (40.3%) expected: 2031 (40.4%)
Two pair: 200 (3.98%) expected: 203 (4.04%)
3 of a kind: 87 (1.73%) expected: 79 (1.57%)
Straight: 72 (1.43%) expected: 62 (1.23%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house: 1 (0.020%) expected: 5 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 0 (0.000%) expected: 1 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
ALL FLOPS SEEN BY THE USER:
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 2630 (3.26%) expected: 2568 (3.19%)
2 flush: 44329 (54.99%) expected: 44383 (55.1%)
3 flush: 4176 (5.18%) expected: 4173 (5.18%)
any pair: 13699 (16.99%) expected: 13656 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card: 40153 (49.8%) expected: 40400 (50.1%)
Pair: 34179 (42.4%) expected: 34063 (42.3%)
Two pair: 3863 (4.79%) expected: 3832 (4.75%)
3 of a kind: 1770 (2.20%) expected: 1703 (2.11%)
Straight: 357 (0.44%) expected: 316 (0.392%)
Flush: 147 (0.18%) expected: 158 (0.197%)
Full house: 131 (0.163%) expected: 116 (0.144%)
Four of a kind: 10 (0.012%) expected: 19 (0.0240%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 1 (0.00139%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000154%)
(Note that only data for hands where a river was dealt and you
were dealt cards preflop are used. Hands where no river was dealt
are skipped.)
Total hands you were dealt cards: 125852
Total final boards seen when you were dealt cards: 44325
USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 10628 times):
Four flushes flopped: 1262 (11.87%)
expected: 1163 (10.9%)
When flop four flush, got flush: 464 (36.77%)
expected: 441 (35.0%)
Hand user has at river:
High card: 1871 (17.6%) expected: 1852 (17.4%)
Pair: 4465 (42.0%) expected: 4532 (42.6%)
Two pair: 2290 (21.55%) expected: 2349 (22.1%)
3 of a kind: 463 (4.36%) expected: 461 (4.33%)
Straight: 494 (4.65%) expected: 484 (4.56%)
Flush: 786 (7.40%) expected: 692 (6.51%)
Full house: 236 (2.221%) expected: 236 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 15 (0.141%) expected: 13 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 7 (0.066%) expected: 7 (0.0663%)
Royal flush: 1 (0.009%) expected: 1 (0.00781%)
USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 3264 times):
A set flopped: 470 (14.40%)
expected: 368 (11.3%)
When flop set, got boat or quads: 153 (32.55%)
expected: 157 (33.4%)
Hand user has at river:
High card: 0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 1126 (34.5%) expected: 1158 (35.5%)
Two pair: 1253 (38.39%) expected: 1290 (39.5%)
3 of a kind: 435 (13.33%) expected: 383 (11.7%)
Straight: 45 (1.38%) expected: 62 (1.90%)
Flush: 63 (1.93%) expected: 64 (1.95%)
Full house: 316 (9.681%) expected: 279 (8.54%)
Four of a kind: 26 (0.797%) expected: 27 (0.842%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 1 (0.0160%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00182%)
USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 2655 times):
Flopped open ended: 244 (9.19%)
expected: 227 (8.55%)
When open ended, got straight: 69 (28.28%)
expected: 75 (30.7%)
Hand user has at river:
High card: 445 (16.8%) expected: 457 (17.2%)
Pair: 1140 (42.9%) expected: 1135 (42.7%)
Two pair: 561 (21.13%) expected: 591 (22.3%)
3 of a kind: 112 (4.22%) expected: 115 (4.35%)
Straight: 259 (9.76%) expected: 242 (9.12%)
Flush: 60 (2.26%) expected: 52 (1.95%)
Full house: 72 (2.712%) expected: 59 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.188%) expected: 3 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 1 (0.038%) expected: 1 (0.0209%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00110%)
ALL RIVERS SEEN BY THE USER:
Hand user has at river:
High card: 7614 (17.2%) expected: 7718 (17.4%)
Pair: 19268 (43.5%) expected: 19424 (43.8%)
Two pair: 10327 (23.30%) expected: 10414
(23.5%)
3 of a kind: 2271 (5.12%) expected: 2141 (4.83%)
Straight: 2095 (4.73%) expected: 2048 (4.62%)
Flush: 1468 (3.31%) expected: 1341 (3.03%)
Full house: 1195 (2.696%) expected: 1151 (2.60%)
Four of a kind: 74 (0.167%) expected: 74 (0.168%)
Straight flush: 12 (0.027%) expected: 12 (0.0279%)
Royal flush: 1 (0.002%) expected: 1 (0.00323%)
Four to a flush on board 2042 (4.607%)
expected: 1902 (4.29%)
